Bloomberg Boosts XRP ETF Approval Odds to 95%, Sparks Market Optimism

Published at:2025年07月03日 17:23
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The prospect of a U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) has taken a significant positive turn. Bloomberg analysts have substantially raised the estimated likelihood of SEC approval to 95%, marking a pivotal development after months of regulatory uncertainty. The update was highlighted by prominent crypto influencer Amelie (@_Crypto_Barbie), who shared an analytical chart comparing spot ETF applications across various digital assets. The data positions XRP among the top contenders for regulatory clearance in 2025, alongside Litecoin and Solana, with significantly higher approval probabilities than competing assets.

Multiple institutional players including Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton have filed S-1 registration statements for spot XRP ETFs. The first 19b-4 application was submitted on January 30, 2025, with the SEC's final decision deadline set for October. Bloomberg's bullish outlook stems from XRP's likely classification as a commodity by regulators and its existing CFTC-regulated futures market—key factors contributing to its strong regulatory standing.

The 95% approval rating places XRP well ahead of competitors like Cardano (90%) and Polkadot (90%), while lesser-known assets such as SUI and Tron trail at 50-60%. This optimism follows Grayscale's recent ETF conversion approval for its Digital Large Cap Fund, which includes XRP in its portfolio. Analysts view this institutional embrace as a critical precedent for standalone XRP ETF approvals.

Market observers note the SEC's traditionally adversarial stance toward XRP may be softening amid broader ETF acceptance and ongoing legal developments. Ripple has voluntarily dismissed its appeal against the SEC, with the commission expected to respond imminently.

Disclaimer: This report contains forward-looking statements and should not be construed as financial advice. Readers should conduct independent research before making investment decisions.
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Cryptocurrency Bloomberg XRP ETF Regulation