JPMorgan Projects Slower Stablecoin Growth: $500B Market Cap by 2028

Contrary to widespread optimism about stablecoins revolutionizing finance, JPMorgan presents a more measured outlook. The banking giant's latest research forecasts the stablecoin market will reach $500 billion by 2028—significantly below the $1-2 trillion projections circulating in the industry.

Led by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the analysis reveals that 88% of current stablecoin demand originates within crypto ecosystems, primarily for trading, DeFi operations, and corporate treasury management. Only 6% stems from payment applications, challenging claims of imminent mainstream adoption.

The report challenges two prevalent narratives: that stablecoins will displace traditional banking products (due to insufficient yield and complex fiat-crypto conversions), and that China's digital yuan or mobile payment platforms serve as valid growth comparables (given their centralized nature).

This cautious stance contrasts with Standard Chartered's earlier projection of a $2 trillion stablecoin market by 2028, contingent on U.S. regulatory clarity through legislation like the proposed Genius Act. While acknowledging growth potential, JPMorgan emphasizes that expansion remains tethered to crypto-native applications until payment infrastructure and regulatory frameworks mature.