JPMorgan Forecasts $500B Stablecoin Market by 2028 – Cautions Against Overly Optimistic Projections

JPMorgan Chase has released a conservative outlook predicting the stablecoin market will grow to $500 billion by 2028, significantly below more bullish estimates of $1-$2 trillion for the same period.

In a Thursday report led by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the banking giant presented a measured growth scenario for the sector. The analysis indicates that crypto-native activities remain the primary driver of stablecoin adoption, with large-scale payment integration still showing limited traction.

"Projections suggesting the stablecoin market will reach $1-2 trillion within a few years appear excessively optimistic in our view," the report states. JPMorgan's research reveals approximately 88% of stablecoin demand originates from within crypto ecosystems – including spot and derivatives trading, DeFi collateral, and digital asset company reserves. Payments account for just 6% of current usage.

The bank maintains that even under the most favorable conditions, payment-focused stablecoins will experience constrained growth. JPMorgan also downplays potential large-scale migration from traditional bank deposits or money market funds to stablecoins, citing low yields and persistent fiat-crypto conversion challenges.

This cautious stance contrasts with more optimistic institutional forecasts. Standard Chartered, for instance, predicts a potential 10x expansion in stablecoin supply to $2 trillion by 2028 if the anticipated GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins) passes in the U.S. The British bank notes this legislation could significantly boost adoption by providing regulatory clarity for USD-pegged stablecoins.

This analysis should not be construed as investment advice.