Bitcoin Liveliness Metric Signals Strong Accumulation Trend in 2025

The first half of 2025 has witnessed Bitcoin (BTC) achieving multiple price records, with market dynamics markedly different from previous cycles. Unlike past trends where large holders typically distributed their coins, the current cycle demonstrates a clear accumulation pattern. Data shows that since January 2025, BTC holders have increasingly opted to retain their assets rather than sell, as reflected in the declining liveliness metric—an on-chain indicator measuring the ratio of spent to held coins.

Remarkably, the 2025 bull market has seen no significant panic selling or capitulation events, as retail investors largely exited their positions during earlier rallies. Bitcoin prices have consolidated within a tight range, predominantly above $100,000, with occasional dips to $80,000. Even market corrections failed to trigger widespread selling pressure. The accumulation trend strengthened further as BTC rebounded above $109,000 during recent market recoveries, subsequently climbing to $110,360—approaching new all-time highs.

This market cycle has been characterized by relatively shallow corrections (rarely exceeding 25%) and a growing perception of Bitcoin transitioning from a speculative asset to a store of value. Notably, on-chain activity remains subdued despite price appreciation, with transaction fees ranging between $0.15 and $0.30 and no signs of network congestion—a stark contrast to previous bull markets.

Wallet data reveals accelerated accumulation across all cohorts, particularly in the 100-1,000 BTC and 1,000-10,000 BTC ranges. June 2025 saw whales accumulating a record 800,000 BTC in a single month. Long-term holding has become predominant, with approximately 62% of Bitcoin supply remaining inactive for over 12 months—a significant increase from the 42% observed after the 2018 rally.

The accumulation trend is further bolstered by corporate buyers regularly adding BTC to their long-term holdings, while exchange reserves continue to decline. Speculative activity has largely shifted to perpetual futures markets using stablecoins, reducing demand for actual BTC transactions. This fundamental shift in market behavior underscores Bitcoin's maturation as a flagship digital asset.