Bitcoin Market Rebalance: Weak Hands Capitulate as Strong Holders Gain Dominance
Published at：2025年07月03日 13:28
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As Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near its all-time high, analysts are observing significant shifts in market dynamics through the lens of Realized Dominance metrics - revealing diverging behaviors between short-term traders and long-term investors.
Blockchain analytics from CryptoQuant indicate a pivotal redistribution in Bitcoin's supply structure. The Realized Dominance metric, which measures the proportion of Bitcoin's realized capitalization held by short-term holders (STH) versus long-term holders (LTH), shows STH's share declining to approximately 45%. This suggests either loss-taking by recent buyers or the maturation of holdings into long-term positions, effectively reducing short-term speculative pressure.
Conversely, the rising LTH Realized Cap reflects profitable movements of older coins - a hallmark of advanced bull market phases. This transfer of supply from short-term to long-term holdings indicates strengthening conviction among patient investors, with analyst Crazzyblockk noting: "This supply transfer dynamic where short-term holders struggle while long-term players accumulate often precedes bullish reversals."
Market observers interpret this transition as potentially constructive, as decreased STH activity typically reduces immediate selling pressure, allowing for more sustainable price appreciation when demand returns. The consolidation phase suggests the formation of a stronger price foundation, potentially setting the stage for new record highs.
However, warning signs persist. Despite growing LTH dominance, Bitcoin's Apparent Demand metric has plunged to -37,000 BTC, raising concerns about waning buying pressure. The market faces potential volatility, with some anticipating a correction mirroring April 2025's $75,000 dip.
A counterbalancing positive indicator shows STH's floor price steadily climbing toward the psychologically significant $100,000 threshold. At reporting time, BTC trades at $107,796, marking a 1.2% 24-hour gain.
Blockchain analytics from CryptoQuant indicate a pivotal redistribution in Bitcoin's supply structure. The Realized Dominance metric, which measures the proportion of Bitcoin's realized capitalization held by short-term holders (STH) versus long-term holders (LTH), shows STH's share declining to approximately 45%. This suggests either loss-taking by recent buyers or the maturation of holdings into long-term positions, effectively reducing short-term speculative pressure.
Conversely, the rising LTH Realized Cap reflects profitable movements of older coins - a hallmark of advanced bull market phases. This transfer of supply from short-term to long-term holdings indicates strengthening conviction among patient investors, with analyst Crazzyblockk noting: "This supply transfer dynamic where short-term holders struggle while long-term players accumulate often precedes bullish reversals."
Market observers interpret this transition as potentially constructive, as decreased STH activity typically reduces immediate selling pressure, allowing for more sustainable price appreciation when demand returns. The consolidation phase suggests the formation of a stronger price foundation, potentially setting the stage for new record highs.
However, warning signs persist. Despite growing LTH dominance, Bitcoin's Apparent Demand metric has plunged to -37,000 BTC, raising concerns about waning buying pressure. The market faces potential volatility, with some anticipating a correction mirroring April 2025's $75,000 dip.
A counterbalancing positive indicator shows STH's floor price steadily climbing toward the psychologically significant $100,000 threshold. At reporting time, BTC trades at $107,796, marking a 1.2% 24-hour gain.
Related Tags
Bitcoin
market dynamics
Realized Dominance
short-term holders
long-term holders